2026 Predictions: Why Strategy Won't Be the Problem, Focus Will

If 2025 was the year leaders realised something isn't lining up between strategy and delivery, 2026 will be the year that gap becomes impossible to ignore.

Across resources, utilities, government and not-for-profits, I'm seeing the same pattern: strategies are getting bigger (AI, decarbonisation, digital, workforce), portfolios are getting fuller, but the operating systems that turn all of that into real performance haven't kept pace.

In our People-Productivity-Performance work and strategic delivery drift research across more than 100 organisations, one thing has become clear: in 2026, your advantage won't be a smarter strategy. It will be your ability to focus, sequence and sustain the right work, without burning people out.

Here's what I think that will look like.

AI Will Deepen the Gap Between "Busy" and "Effective"

By the end of 2026, AI won't be a novelty. It will be embedded in how most medium-to-large organisations plan, analyse and deliver work. But here's the catch: teams who redesign work around AI (decision flows, roles, cadences, standards) will see genuine productivity gains. Teams who bolt AI on top of already overloaded systems will just accelerate chaos.

AI will amplify whatever operating system you have. If your system is chaotic, AI makes it faster chaos.

The organisations that win will treat AI as a change program, not a tool rollout. They'll use it to simplify work, not add noise.

Decarbonisation Will Move From Strategy Slide to Portfolio Pain

In Australia, decarbonisation is no longer theoretical. We have national targets to cut emissions 62-70% by 2035, and every major sector must materially shift how they invest and operate.

In 2025, this showed up as emissions roadmaps sitting alongside "business as usual" portfolios. Conflicting priorities between growth, maintenance, safety and decarb, with teams unsure which targets came first. In 2026, this tension will bite harder.

The organisations that stay ahead will integrate decarbonisation into portfolio decision-making, not treat it as a parallel universe. They'll ask: "Where is decarb work competing with our core priorities, and who decides?"

Burnout Will Be the Hidden Constraint on Transformation

Burnout and disengagement aren't new, but they are deepening. In 2025, I saw senior leaders technically committed to transformation but personally exhausted. Middle managers stuck in the squeeze between ambitious portfolios and day-job delivery. Change and PMO teams trying to orchestrate huge volumes of work with minimal authority.

In 2026, talent and energy will quietly become your limiting factor. Not budget. Not technology.

The organisations that adapt will treat leadership energy and capacity as a design constraint in portfolio planning. They'll simplify their operating rhythm and make "stop lists" as important as "start lists".

Hybrid Work Will Settle, But Rhythm Will Differentiate

Hybrid work isn't going away. But the honeymoon is over. In 2026, the question won't be "Are you hybrid?" It will be: "Does your operating rhythm actually work in a hybrid world?"

I expect to see two camps. Calendar chaos organisations: every day is a different experiment and no one is sure when real work gets done. Rhythm organisations: cadence is intentional. Planned focus days, clear team rituals, well-designed hybrid collaboration.

The winners will design a clear cadence of reflection, alignment and decision-making (weekly, monthly, quarterly) and stick to it.

The 90-Day Reset Will Beat the 3-Year Masterplan

We're going to see a shift away from grand, multi-year transformation programs with fuzzy payoffs toward shorter, sharper 90-day cycles. Why? Economic conditions remain uncertain. Boards and executives are demanding evidence of progress, not just activity. AI, decarbonisation and regulatory shifts are moving too fast for static plans.

The organisations winning in 2026 will keep a 3-5 year narrative (the "north star"), but drive change through rolling 90-day bets with clear outcomes, named owners, visible trade-offs and simple review rhythms.

Three Moves to Make in Q1 2026

Run a Strategic Delivery Drift Health Check

Not as a survey. As a conversation. Our one-page Health Check is designed to take 10-15 minutes and surface where your Five Non-Negotiables are weakest. Use it in your next EXCO, portfolio or strategy offsite.

Translate Strategy Into a 90-Day Plan (With a Stop List)

Once you're clear on where drift is, resist the urge to add more. Instead, ask:

• What are our 3-5 non-negotiable bets for the next 90 days?

• What will we deliberately pause, stop or de-scope to make room?

• What rhythms and owners will hold this to account?

Design Your 2026 Operating Rhythm

Projects matter. But how you meet, decide and work together will make or break your year. Map your current cadences. Ask honestly: "Which create real value? Which are theatre?" Redesign your rhythm around focus, decision-making and energy, not habit.

The Bottom Line

2026 will reward organisations that are honest about where drift is showing up, disciplined about focus and cadence, and brave enough to stop doing things that no longer serve their strategy.

My hope is that this work helps more leaders turn ambitious strategies into real, sustainable performance, without losing their people along the way.